C-Meter: April 2004

The Confidence Meter suffered a significant reverse in our latest poll. Confidence in economic growth declined by half a point, dropping from 6.8 in March to 6.3 in April, a level last seen in November 2003, perhaps because the U.S. economy only added 21,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate has remained at 5.6 percent. The most pessimistic IT executives are those in the retail/wholesale sector; their confidence in both their own industry and their own companies dropped by about one point. Computer services vendors are an exception: Confidence in their industry went up .6 points, which indicates they foresee growing IT spending in this area. Overall, however, CIOs are now a half point more confident in their own company's outlook than that of their industry or the economy. How long will that last?