At first glance, overall IT spending appears to be flat in 2006. But once the numbers are weighted to reflect the fact that smaller companies far outnumber larger ones, a more complicated pattern appears.

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We expect IT spending to increase by 5.4 percent this year, slightly more than last year's 5 percent increase. Small and midsize companies are increasing spending at roughly the same rate as last year's increases of 12.7 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively.

Manufacturers and government agencies are spending well ahead of their 2005 pace. But financial services firms-including several with billion-dollar IT budgets-are cutting back enough to depress the figures for large companies.

Will CIOs get to spend all the money in their budgets? Not likely. In last year's survey, we found that half of IT executives spent less than they had budgeted.

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