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By Jeff Goldman on 2011-01-12
Research firm Gartner, Inc. issued its top predictions for IT organizations and users over the next several years. The predictions were selected based on their relevance, impact and audience appeal, from more than 100 of the firm’s predictions across all research areas. “With costs still under pressure, growth opportunities limited and the tolerance to bear risk low, IT faces increased levels of scrutiny from stakeholders both internal and external,” says managing vice president and Gartner fellow Darryl Plummer. “As organizations plan for the years ahead, our predictions focus on the impact this scrutiny will have on outcomes, operations, users and reporting. All parties expect greater transparency, and meeting this demand will require that IT become more tightly coupled to the levers of business control.” Gartner analysts say the predictions highlight the significant changes in the roles played by technology and IT organizations in business, the global economy and the lives of individual users. “Gartner’s top predictions showcase the trends and disruptive events that will reshape the nature of business for the next year and beyond,” says vice president and Gartner fellow Brian Gammage. “Selected from across our research areas as the most compelling and critical predictions, the developments and topics they address this year focus on changes in the roles that technologies and IT organizations play: in the lives of workers, the performance of businesses and the wider world.”
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Critical Infrastructure Gartner predicts that a multimodal online attack, targeting multiple systems for maximum impact (financial systems, physical plants, mobile communications, etc.), will disrupt and damage a G20 nation’s critical infrastructure by 2015.
CIO Compensation ModelsBy 2015, Gartner predicts, expectations for realizing revenue from IT initiatives will become so common that the amount of new revenue generated will become the primary factor in determining the incentive portion of annual pay for Global 2000 CIOs.
IT Spending Gartner expects that by 2015, consolidation, optimization and cost transparency programs, along with staff reduction and freezes, will provide leading companies with at least a 60 percent increase in the metric for “IT spending per enterprise employee,” when compared against the metrics of peer organizations and internal trading metrics.
Tools and Automation By 2015, Gartner anticipates that cloud computing will hasten the use of tools and automation in IT services, resulting in a marked increase in productivity levels for service providers and a reduction in their costs of delivery. These tools and automation solutions are expected to eliminate 25 percent of IT labor hours.
Cloud CompetitionAs non-IT organizations increasingly externalize core competencies via cloud computing, Gartner predicts that by 2015, they will be interjecting themselves into value chain systems and competing directly with IT organizations. Gartner predicts that 20 percent of non-IT Global 500 enterprises will become cloud service providers during this period.
Employee-Liable DevicesBy 2014, Gartner expects it will be commonplace for organizations to support corporate applications on employee-owned notebooks and smartphones. The main driver for this will be the employees, who prefer to use their own mobile devices for business.
Tablet Ubiquity80 percent of businesses will support a workforce using tablets by 2013. Gartner anticipates this “huge wave” of tablet devices will result in varying support requirements across and within enterprises, depending on usage scenario. At minimum, enterprises will have to offer appliance-level support, as well as helpdesk support for connectivity issues.
The Rise of Social Bots10 percent of online ‘Friends’ will be non-human by 2015. Gartner predicts that organizations’ increasing systematization of social media strategies will result in the rise of social bots – automated software agents designed to handle interaction with communities of users in a manner personalized to each individual.
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