Gartner analysts, summing up fourth quarter IT spending and looking ahead for 2012, offered global scenarios that could play out not so much from good to bad, but mildly bad to far worse. During a Jan. 10 webinar, Gartner analysts revised the firm's global IT spending forecast for 2012 from 4.6% to 3.7%, pointing to a global economic slowdown, the Eurozone crisis and the recent floods in Thailand. While the floods have received considerably less media attention than Japan's catastrophic earthquakes and tsunami, they're expected to have a far greater, and indeed unprecedented, effect on the tech industry, with no global OEMs expected to receive 100% of the HDDs they require. The good news, all agreed, is that 2012 is no 2009. Despite the forecast reduction, there's nonetheless an expectation of some growth, and companies are still spending, if in select areas. One such area is software, where investments are shifting from growth-oriented opportunities to solutions that enable organizations to do more with the same number of people.
Gartner analyst John Monroe estimates that 123.9 million HDDs shipped during the 4Q 2011, down from 175.8 million in 3Q. "The IT world is about to wake up to the hard impacts of almost 30% of a devalued, commoditized but absolutely crucial and complex technology being removed virtually overnight from the global supply chain. This has ... never happened before," said Monroe.
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