Gartner’s 10 Key Predictions for 2007

This is prediction season and Gartner—which holds one of the top spots in the prediction business—has passed along the company’s key expectations. I include these predictions verbatim from Gartner and follow each with a short comment from yours truly.

1. Through 2009, market share for the top 10 IT outsourcers will decline to 40.0 percent (from 43.5 percent now), equaling a revenue shift of $5.4 billion. As market share declines, some key outsourcing vendors will cease to exist in their current named form. The reduced number of large contracts, increased amount of competition and reduction in contract sizes have placed great pressure on outsourcers, which will have to “sink or swim” based on support for selective outsourcing and disciplined multisourcing competencies.

Lundquist: True that the big outsourcers’ share will decline, but false that outsourcing will decline. I think you will continue to see a rise of small, nimble outsourcing firms that use the Web to deliver applications faster than you can say, “Charge it on my credit card.”

2. Only one Asia/Pacific-based service provider will make the global Top 20 through 2010. The number of global players in consulting that come from Asia is relatively small. This will limit the ability of the Asian juggernaut to grow revenue streams rapidly and become global leaders.

Lundquist: Top 20 service providers? This will depend on the government regulatory environment as much as on technology. If the government clearances were in place, an Asian company could quickly acquire its way to the top tier.

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